Will FC Anyang win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$131.07

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 78¢

+50% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,844

Combined PnL+$150.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$100.32

Total Shares266

Combined PnL-$19.48

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 47¢	$648.78	$676.39	+$34.51	47% 2569-2855 (5424)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 48¢	$317.18	$519.52	+$39.53	50% 25606-25439 (51045)
FO foooool	Noavg 59.7¢	$233.42	$286.54	+$53.12	50% 11152-10960 (22112)
28 2829	Noavg 77.2¢	$201.07	$204.36	+$3.29	46% 423-495 (918)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 48¢	$107.31	$110.1	+$2.79	53% 16101-14270 (30371)
└ No leg	Noavg 48¢	$66.91	$69.7	+$2.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$40.39	$40.39	+$0
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$119.58	$87.57	-$32	48% 8890-9482 (18372)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$103.57	$61.85	-$41.73
└ No leg	Noavg 48.8¢	$16	$25.72	+$9.72
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$96.05	$84.52	-$9.61	49% 163-172 (335)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$40.73	$51.3	+$20.57	58% 42612-31008 (73620)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$35.17	$35.4	+$0.22	51% 6062-5779 (11841)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 48¢	$31.68	$32.34	+$0	57% 29203-21595 (50798)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.9¢	$25.67	$15.79	-$9.87	58% 10615-7587 (18202)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 72¢	$11.2	$10.66	-$0.54	59% 30651-21360 (52011)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.55	-$0.15	58% 18770-13836 (32606)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$648.78

Value

$676.39

PnL

+$34.51

Record

47%

2569-2855 (5424)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$317.18

Value

$519.52

PnL

+$39.53

Record

50%

25606-25439 (51045)

foooool

Invested

$233.42

Value

$286.54

PnL

+$53.12

Record

50%

11152-10960 (22112)

2829

Invested

$201.07

Value

$204.36

PnL

+$3.29

Record

46%

423-495 (918)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$107.31

Value

$110.1

PnL

+$2.79

Record

53%

16101-14270 (30371)

Both legs:

Invested

$119.58

Value

$87.57

PnL

-$32

Record

48%

8890-9482 (18372)

Both legs:

Yes$103.5736¢-$41.73

No$1648.8¢+$9.72

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.05

Value

$84.52

PnL

-$9.61

Record

49%

163-172 (335)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$40.73

Value

$51.3

PnL

+$20.57

Record

58%

42612-31008 (73620)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$35.17

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$0.22

Record

51%

6062-5779 (11841)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$32.34

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29203-21595 (50798)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.67

Value

$15.79

PnL

-$9.87

Record

58%

10615-7587 (18202)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.66

PnL

-$0.54

Record

59%

30651-21360 (52011)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

18770-13836 (32606)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.