Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk, while the market favors Metallurg Magnitogorsk (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
KHL: Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk (57%) · Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk at 26¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
7
Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk 57%
$1.0K
$14.1
38.4¢ → 25.5¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Metallurg Magnitogorsk 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 38.5¢ | $491.7 | $524.18 | +$32.49 | 49% 18399-18822 (37221) |
 VeryLucky888 | Metallurg Magnitogorskavg 61.5¢ | $492 | $303.17 | -$8.62 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
SL slimjoe | Metallurg Magnitogorskavg 61¢ | $157.38 | $152.22 | -$5.16 | 51% 6431-6105 (12536) |
 poshposh<$100 | Metallurg Magnitogorskavg 61¢ | $42.01 | $34.44 | -$7.58 | 60% 9092-6016 (15108) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 36¢ | $8.28 | $11.5 | +$3.22 | 50% 6745-6755 (13500) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.45 | -$0.35 | 59% 29924-20650 (50574) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 37¢ | $0.91 | $1.01 | +$0.1 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
Invested
$491.7
Value
$524.18
PnL
+$32.49
Record
49%
18399-18822 (37221)
VeryLucky888Invested
$492
Value
$303.17
PnL
-$8.62
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$157.38
Value
$152.22
PnL
-$5.16
Record
51%
6431-6105 (12536)
poshposh<$100Invested
$42.01
Value
$34.44
PnL
-$7.58
Record
60%
9092-6016 (15108)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$3.22
Record
50%
6745-6755 (13500)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.35
Record
59%
29924-20650 (50574)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
CTRNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk — $524.18
VeryLucky888
Metallurg Magnitogorsk — $303.17
slimjoe
Metallurg Magnitogorsk — $152.22
poshposh
Metallurg Magnitogorsk — $34.44
Forecastication2
CTRNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk — $11.5
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk — $1.45
HRTrading
CTRNeftekhimik Nizhnekamsk — $1.01