KHL: Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk vs. Admiral Vladivostok
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Admiral Vladivostok (50%) · Admiral Vladivostok at 63¢ · $27 held · ended Oct 29
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Neutral
Admiral Vladivostok
2
Admiral Vladivostok 50%
$27.05
-$4.98
Research grade
NeutralAdmiral Vladivostok at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Admiral Vladivostokavg 29.9¢ | $17.18 | $20.08 | +$2.9 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Neftekhimik Nizhnekamskavg 59.8¢ | $20.34 | $6.97 | -$7.87 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.