KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. Avangard Omsk

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lada Togliatti (50%) · Lada Togliatti at 100¢ · $984 held · ended Oct 30

Lada Togliatti>99¢Avangard Omsk<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lada Togliatti

Consensus Traders

Lada Togliatti 50%

Total Value

$983.82

Combined PnL

$0.17

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 99.7¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLada Togliatti at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lada Togliatti

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lada Togliatti100%

Avangard Omsk0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lada Togliatti3 traders

Total Value$869.03

Total Shares874

Combined PnL+$14.09

Avangard Omsk3 traders

Total Value$114.79

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$13.91

Lada Togliatti — 50%Avangard Omsk — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lada Togliatti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLada Togliatti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLada Togliatti 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lada Togliatti 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Lada Togliattiavg 78.8¢	$931.18	$853.31	+$4.52	86% 5097-864 (5961)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Avangard Omskavg 60¢	$64.45	$49.11	-$15.35	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
poshposhCTR<$100	Avangard Omskavg 38.8¢	$31.68	$33.11	+$1.43	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Avangard Omskavg 68¢	$32.57	$32.57	+$0	53% 3168-2789 (5957)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Lada Togliattiavg 34¢	$4.96	$14.53	+$9.57	59% 30376-21082 (51458)
HRTrading<$100	Lada Togliattiavg 34¢	$1.19	$1.19	+$0	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Lada Togliatti

Invested

$931.18

Value

$853.31

PnL

+$4.52

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Avangard Omsk

Invested

$64.45

Value

$49.11

PnL

-$15.35

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

poshposhCTR<$100

Avangard Omsk

Invested

$31.68

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$1.43

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Avangard Omsk

Invested

$32.57

Value

$32.57

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3168-2789 (5957)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Lada Togliatti

Invested

$4.96

Value

$14.53

PnL

+$9.57

Record

59%

30376-21082 (51458)

HRTrading<$100

Lada Togliatti

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.19

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralLada Togliatti at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lada Togliatti

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lada Togliatti. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLada Togliatti 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLada Togliatti 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lada Togliatti 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lada Togliatti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.