KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Amur Khabarovsk
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold HC Dynamo Moscow (100%) · HC Dynamo Moscow at 65¢ · $581 held · ends Oct 28
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Neutral
HC Dynamo Moscow
5
HC Dynamo Moscow 100%
$581.29
-$98.3
58.9¢ → 64.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralHC Dynamo Moscow at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 61¢ | $335.67 | $275 | -$60.67 | 49% 18594-19014 (37608) |
 poshposh | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 56¢ | $170 | $151.79 | -$18.21 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 57¢ | $78.66 | $69 | -$9.66 | 51% 6452-6117 (12569) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 60¢ | $62.2 | $56.5 | -$5.7 | 50% 6811-6825 (13636) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 57¢ | $33.06 | $29 | -$4.06 | 49% 1127-1155 (2282) |
Invested
$335.67
Value
$275
PnL
-$60.67
Record
49%
18594-19014 (37608)
poshposhInvested
$170
Value
$151.79
PnL
-$18.21
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
Invested
$78.66
Value
$69
PnL
-$9.66
Record
51%
6452-6117 (12569)
Invested
$62.2
Value
$56.5
PnL
-$5.7
Record
50%
6811-6825 (13636)
Invested
$33.06
Value
$29
PnL
-$4.06
Record
49%
1127-1155 (2282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.