KHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. HC Dynamo Moscow
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold HC Dynamo Moscow (75%) · HC Dynamo Moscow at 64¢ · $189 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
HC Dynamo Moscow
4
HC Dynamo Moscow 75%
$188.79
$63.06
48.3¢ → 64¢
+33% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralHC Dynamo Moscow at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 45.5¢ | $49.59 | $80.65 | +$31.07 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 VeryLucky888 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 44.9¢ | $111.53 | $75.98 | +$29.88 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 62.9¢ | $27.68 | $28.16 | +$0.48 | 85% 5888-1004 (6892) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Dinamo Minskavg 21.3¢ | $2.36 | $4 | +$1.63 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
Invested
$49.59
Value
$80.65
PnL
+$31.07
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
VeryLucky888Invested
$111.53
Value
$75.98
PnL
+$29.88
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$27.68
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$0.48
Record
85%
5888-1004 (6892)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$4
PnL
+$1.63
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.