Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 4.5¢ · $19 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$19.14
-$20.53
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.9¢ | $17.57 | $9.66 | -$7.91 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.5¢ | $14.39 | $6.29 | -$8.1 | 12% 16-115 (131) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $4.5 | $1.8 | -$2.7 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $2.91 | $1.16 | -$1.75 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 6¢ | $0.3 | $0.22 | -$0.07 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$17.57
Value
$9.66
PnL
-$7.91
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$14.39
Value
$6.29
PnL
-$8.1
Record
12%
16-115 (131)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$2.7
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$1.75
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.07
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.