KBO Playoff: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kia Tigers (57%) · Kia Tigers at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 6

Samsung Lions<1¢Kia Tigers>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kia Tigers

Consensus Traders

Kia Tigers 57%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$139.07

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 100¢

+78% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKia Tigers at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kia Tigers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Samsung Lions0%

Kia Tigers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kia Tigers4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,656

Combined PnL+$89.88

Samsung Lions3 traders

Total Value$285.43

Total Shares539

Combined PnL+$49.19

Kia Tigers — 57%Samsung Lions — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Kia Tigersavg 55¢	$368.18	$518.06	+$149.88	59% 30362-21074 (51436)
OM omnibus-076daa	Kia Tigersavg 56¢	$355.42	$298.17	-$57.25	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
GH ghostorder	Kia Tigersavg 58.9¢	$479.9	$293.05	-$2.57	62% 4353-2679 (7032)
VeryLucky888CTR	Samsung Lionsavg 42.7¢	$218.62	$271.38	+$50.2	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Kia Tigersavg 56.6¢	$16.72	$16.54	-$0.18	54% 2975-2554 (5529)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 55¢	$11.83	$11.4	-$0.43	51% 5972-5662 (11634)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Samsung Lionsavg 65¢	$3.25	$2.65	-$0.58	50% 6968-6968 (13936)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Kia Tigers

Invested

$368.18

Value

$518.06

PnL

+$149.88

Record

59%

30362-21074 (51436)

omnibus-076daa

Kia Tigers

Invested

$355.42

Value

$298.17

PnL

-$57.25

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

ghostorder

Kia Tigers

Invested

$479.9

Value

$293.05

PnL

-$2.57

Record

62%

4353-2679 (7032)

VeryLucky888CTR

Samsung Lions

Invested

$218.62

Value

$271.38

PnL

+$50.2

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Kia Tigers

Invested

$16.72

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

2975-2554 (5529)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$11.83

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

5972-5662 (11634)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Samsung Lions

Invested

$3.25

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

6968-6968 (13936)

Research grade

NeutralKia Tigers at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kia Tigers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kia Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.