Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Kaisar Kyzylorda win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 43¢ · $179 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$178.57
$8.85
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $68.75 | $102.82 | +$22.41 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $82.28 | $68.97 | -$13.31 | 60% 882-578 (1460) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $4.79 | $4.59 | -$0.2 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.24 | $2.19 | -$0.05 | 50% 33342-32905 (66247) |
Invested
$68.75
Value
$102.82
PnL
+$22.41
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
Invested
$82.28
Value
$68.97
PnL
-$13.31
Record
60%
882-578 (1460)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.19
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
33342-32905 (66247)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.