Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Okzhetpes win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 45¢ · $997 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$997.37
-$6.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR | Noavg 45¢ | $715.48 | $715.48 | -$0 | 51% 222-216 (438) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $157.29 | $155.26 | -$2.03 | 49% 19132-19523 (38655) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $70.33 | $78.38 | -$4.77 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 55.4¢ | $48.11 | $48.25 | +$0.14 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
Invested
$715.48
Value
$715.48
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
222-216 (438)
Invested
$157.29
Value
$155.26
PnL
-$2.03
Record
49%
19132-19523 (38655)
Invested
$70.33
Value
$78.38
PnL
-$4.77
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$48.11
Value
$48.25
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.