Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will FC Ordabasy win on 2026-10-31?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 36¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$11.0K
-$67.19
41.6¢ → 36¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$39.16 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.5¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$248.78 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$209.62 | |
KK kkpay19888CTR | Yesavg 42.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$37.87 | 51% 531-514 (1045) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 57.5¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$219.22 | 49% 19146-19539 (38685) |
FF ff3364CTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$36.98 | 50% 800-803 (1603) |
NO Notradecopy | Noavg 45¢ | $500 | $572.22 | +$72.22 | 49% 3921-4114 (8035) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Noavg 45¢ | $500 | $572.22 | +$72.22 | 51% 3927-3841 (7768) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 58.4¢ | $148.22 | $154.91 | +$6.69 | 53% 4546-4095 (8641) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $0.73 | $0.75 | +$0.02 | 54% 6276-5317 (11593) |
Invested
$4,187.25
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$39.16
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,177.89
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$37.87
Record
51%
531-514 (1045)
Invested
$2,089.27
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$219.22
Record
49%
19146-19539 (38685)
Invested
$1,479.33
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$36.98
Record
50%
800-803 (1603)
Invested
$500
Value
$572.22
PnL
+$72.22
Record
49%
3921-4114 (8035)
Invested
$500
Value
$572.22
PnL
+$72.22
Record
51%
3927-3841 (7768)
HRTradingInvested
$148.22
Value
$154.91
PnL
+$6.69
Record
53%
4546-4095 (8641)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
6276-5317 (11593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.