Josh Shapiro Democratic nomination odds leader on November 30?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$210.54
$0.1
99.7¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $89.64 | $89.73 | +$0.09 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $76.27 | $76.12 | -$0.15 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.81 | $29.91 | +$0.1 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $14.71 | $14.78 | +$0.07 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$89.64
Value
$89.73
PnL
+$0.09
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$76.27
Value
$76.12
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$29.81
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$0.1
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$14.78
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.