JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
$264.86
72.2¢ → 58.5¢
-19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST Stonktrader | Yesavg 80.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$267.03 | 75% 166-55 (221) |
 Nadmi | Yesavg 57¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$51.1 | 47% 2033-2252 (4285) |
SN SnoorrasonCTR | Noavg 11.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$41.57 | 39% 1179-1850 (3029) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $2.1K | $892.06 | -$412.05 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 89¢ | $794.07 | $539.7 | -$602.31 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 15.1¢ | $134.26 | $352.36 | +$190.26 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 90.5¢ | $362 | $356 | -$4 | 56% 15281-11831 (27112) |
 PaddyAlpha | Yesavg 70.7¢ | $113.1 | $89.6 | -$7.7 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
Invested
$2,364.72
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$267.03
Record
75%
166-55 (221)
NadmiInvested
$1,165.06
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$51.1
Record
47%
2033-2252 (4285)
Invested
$1,114.58
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$41.57
Record
39%
1179-1850 (3029)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,056.28
Value
$892.06
PnL
-$412.05
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$362
Value
$356
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
15281-11831 (27112)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$113.1
Value
$89.6
PnL
-$7.7
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.