Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 52¢ · $112K held · ended Nov 1

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 14%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$111.6K

Combined PnL

$7.2K

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 51.5¢

+13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 14 top traders (14%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$63.9K

Total Shares121,693

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares57,105

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 92% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 45.7¢	$54.6K	$62.8K	+$8.1K	49% 163-171 (334)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$19.3K	$17.5K	-$175.78	59% 46770-33051 (79821)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 54.3¢	$13.5K	$12.6K	-$68.24	54% 57091-49342 (106433)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$9.4K	$8.4K	-$136.38
└ No leg	Noavg 50.7¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$68.14
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 54.7¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$173.9	50% 25589-25416 (51005)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.7¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$504.84
└ No leg	Noavg 45.1¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$330.94
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 55¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$120	47% 2567-2854 (5421)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 53¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$278.49	49% 252-262 (514)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 55.1¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$72.63	49% 12972-13528 (26500)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 54.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$177.37	53% 16099-14267 (30366)
AY ay118	Noavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$117.02	46% 35-41 (76)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$138.88	50% 33800-33366 (67166)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 54.9¢	$811.6	$636	-$18.7	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$274.54	$247.63	-$26.91	53% 5545-4956 (10501)
tradecraftCTR	Yesavg 54¢	$221.55	$219.5	-$2.05	51% 6057-5778 (11835)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 54.9¢	$151.01	$151.52	+$0.17	57% 29194-21587 (50781)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.9¢	$124.1	$119.78	-$4.32
└ No leg	Noavg 39¢	$26.91	$31.74	+$4.49
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$69.98	$62.12	-$7.87	48% 8863-9449 (18312)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.3	-$0.1	51% 1519-1471 (2990)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.69	$5.3	-$0.4	52% 7473-6774 (14247)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$54,629.82

Value

$62.8K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

49%

163-171 (334)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$19,285.04

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$175.78

Record

59%

46770-33051 (79821)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$13,501.15

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$68.24

Record

54%

57091-49342 (106433)

Both legs:

Yes$9,381.254.3¢-$136.38

No$4,119.9550.7¢+$68.14

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$6,785.2

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$173.9

Record

50%

25589-25416 (51005)

Both legs:

Yes$4,445.7654.7¢-$504.84

No$2,339.4445.1¢+$330.94

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$120

Record

47%

2567-2854 (5421)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,683.6

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$278.49

Record

49%

252-262 (514)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,870.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$72.63

Record

49%

12972-13528 (26500)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,439.34

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$177.37

Record

53%

16099-14267 (30366)

ay118

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$117.02

Record

46%

35-41 (76)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,214.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$138.88

Record

50%

33800-33366 (67166)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$811.6

Value

$636

PnL

-$18.7

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$274.54

Value

$247.63

PnL

-$26.91

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

tradecraftCTR

Yes

Invested

$221.55

Value

$219.5

PnL

-$2.05

Record

51%

6057-5778 (11835)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$151.01

Value

$151.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

Both legs:

Invested

$69.98

Value

$62.12

PnL

-$7.87

Record

48%

8863-9449 (18312)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1519-1471 (2990)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

52%

7473-6774 (14247)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 14 top traders (14%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

7% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 92% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.