FC Machida Zelvia vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 86¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 85.5¢

+66% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares8,009

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over2 traders

Total Value$905.94

Total Shares2,636

Combined PnL-$427.89

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 51.5¢	$1.5K	$2.3K	+$879.33	59% 46810-33082 (79892)
RN1	Underavg 56.8¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$353.34	54% 57108-49373 (106481)
us391	Underavg 48¢	$907.84	$1.2K	+$293.16	51% 1708-1674 (3382)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 51.9¢	$831.98	$1.1K	+$132.5	50% 25606-25439 (51045)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 52¢	$2.5K	$880.95	-$427.89	49% 252-262 (514)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46.7¢	$213.41	$283.5	+$70.09	58% 42612-31008 (73620)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 57.4¢	$106.05	$151.54	+$29.78	50% 33813-33380 (67193)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 45.6¢	$47.69	$76.96	+$29.26	48% 8890-9482 (18372)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$24.99	$24.99	+$0	50% 11152-10960 (22112)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.45	$10.92	+$2.47	58% 10615-7587 (18202)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$3.09	+$0.57	52% 7480-6775 (14255)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.54	$2.12	+$0.59	53% 5561-4981 (10542)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,459.85

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$879.33

Record

59%

46810-33082 (79892)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,029.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$353.34

Record

54%

57108-49373 (106481)

us391

Under

Invested

$907.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$293.16

Record

51%

1708-1674 (3382)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$831.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$132.5

Record

50%

25606-25439 (51045)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$2,516.99

Value

$880.95

PnL

-$427.89

Record

49%

252-262 (514)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$213.41

Value

$283.5

PnL

+$70.09

Record

58%

42612-31008 (73620)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$106.05

Value

$151.54

PnL

+$29.78

Record

50%

33813-33380 (67193)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$47.69

Value

$76.96

PnL

+$29.26

Record

48%

8890-9482 (18372)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

11152-10960 (22112)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$8.45

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$2.47

Record

58%

10615-7587 (18202)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.57

Record

52%

7480-6775 (14255)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.54

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.59

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.