FC Machida Zelvia vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 62¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
2 arb excluded
$4.5K
$150.28
51.6¢ → 61.5¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | -$158.77 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$237.89 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.2¢ | $1.4K | $974.9 | -$396.66 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 37.6¢ | $820.84 | $995.81 | +$174.96 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37.6¢ | $468.02 | $765.58 | +$297.55 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 77¢ | $460.46 | $230.23 | -$122.59 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 52.2¢ | $608.59 | $717.28 | +$108.69 | 54% 57108-49373 (106481) |
LA LaarsY | Underavg 51¢ | $170.39 | $198.36 | +$27.97 | 51% 3432-3353 (6785) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 48.7¢ | $47.67 | $55.78 | +$8.11 | 48% 8890-9482 (18372) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $32.36 | $36.97 | +$4.61 | 50% 11152-10960 (22112) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 22.3¢ | $2.14 | $3.36 | +$1.22 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.35 | -$0.33 | 52% 7480-6775 (14255) |
Invested
$2,658.91
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$158.77
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
Both legs:
Invested
$820.84
Value
$995.81
PnL
+$174.96
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$608.59
Value
$717.28
PnL
+$108.69
Record
54%
57108-49373 (106481)
Invested
$170.39
Value
$198.36
PnL
+$27.97
Record
51%
3432-3353 (6785)
Invested
$47.67
Value
$55.78
PnL
+$8.11
Record
48%
8890-9482 (18372)
Invested
$32.36
Value
$36.97
PnL
+$4.61
Record
50%
11152-10960 (22112)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$1.22
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0.33
Record
52%
7480-6775 (14255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.