FC Machida Zelvia vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 0.5

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 75¢ · $92K held · ended Nov 1

Over75¢Under25¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$91.7K

Combined PnL

$9.0K

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over75%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$72.2K

Total Shares81,571

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Under5 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares87,694

Combined PnL+$12.7K

Over — 17%Under — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 93¢	$81.6K	$72.2K	$-3.7K	92% 60-5 (65)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 7.2¢	$5.7K	$18.0K	+$12.3K	59% 46810-33082 (79892)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 6.9¢	$7.4K	$847.02	+$342.06	50% 33813-33380 (67193)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 13.3¢	$397.51	$541.22	+$155.27	50% 25606-25439 (51045)
└ Under leg	Underavg 13.3¢	$237.73	$408.05	+$170.32
└ Over leg	Overavg 92.6¢	$159.78	$133.17	-$15.05
RN1CTR	Underavg 9.8¢	$60.12	$124.53	+$64.41	54% 57108-49373 (106481)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 16.6¢	$30.95	$35.06	+$4.1	50% 11152-10960 (22112)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 12.2¢	$3.06	$5.47	+$2.41	53% 5561-4981 (10542)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$81,571.16

Value

$72.2K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

92%

60-5 (65)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$5,703.09

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

59%

46810-33082 (79892)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$7,365.37

Value

$847.02

PnL

+$342.06

Record

50%

33813-33380 (67193)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$397.51

Value

$541.22

PnL

+$155.27

Record

50%

25606-25439 (51045)

Both legs:

Under$237.7313.3¢+$170.32

Over$159.7892.6¢-$15.05

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$60.12

Value

$124.53

PnL

+$64.41

Record

54%

57108-49373 (106481)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.95

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$4.1

Record

50%

11152-10960 (22112)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.06

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$2.41

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.5%

74.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.