Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Machida Zelvia, while the market favors Gamba Ōsaka (78%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: FC Machida Zelvia (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Machida Zelvia (60%) · FC Machida Zelvia at 22¢ · $670 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
FC Machida Zelvia
5
FC Machida Zelvia 60%
2 arb excluded
$670.46
$1.62
Research grade
AvoidFC Machida Zelvia at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Gamba Ōsaka 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | FC Machida Zelviaavg 29.4¢ | $457.73 | $415.59 | -$52.08 | 59% 46770-33051 (79821) |
| └ FC Machida Zelvia leg | FC Machida Zelviaavg 29.4¢ | $308.5 | $246.75 | -$61.75 | |
| └ Gamba Ōsaka leg | Gamba Ōsakaavg 67.6¢ | $149.23 | $168.84 | +$9.67 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Gamba Ōsakaavg 69.4¢ | $163.82 | $166.79 | +$2.97 | 50% 25589-25416 (51005) |
| └ Gamba Ōsaka leg | Gamba Ōsakaavg 69.4¢ | $113.29 | $125.76 | +$12.47 | |
| └ FC Machida Zelvia leg | FC Machida Zelviaavg 28.3¢ | $50.53 | $41.03 | -$9.5 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | FC Machida Zelviaavg 27¢ | $50.69 | $45.92 | +$1.88 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Gamba Ōsakaavg 70¢ | $35 | $34.5 | -$0.5 | 49% 12972-13528 (26500) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | FC Machida Zelviaavg 26¢ | $4.94 | $5.32 | +$0.38 | 48% 8863-9449 (18312) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | FC Machida Zelviaavg 30¢ | $1.5 | $1.4 | -$0.1 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
 RN1<$100 | Gamba Ōsakaavg 75¢ | $0.98 | $0.94 | -$0.04 | 54% 57091-49342 (106433) |
Invested
$457.73
Value
$415.59
PnL
-$52.08
Record
59%
46770-33051 (79821)
Both legs:
Invested
$163.82
Value
$166.79
PnL
+$2.97
Record
50%
25589-25416 (51005)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50.69
Value
$45.92
PnL
+$1.88
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$35
Value
$34.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
49%
12972-13528 (26500)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.38
Record
48%
8863-9449 (18312)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
RN1<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
57091-49342 (106433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.