Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 80¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$32.72

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,645

Combined PnL+$3.36

Yes6 traders

Total Value$518.11

Total Shares2,426

Combined PnL-$36.08

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008	Noavg 78¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$11.46	49% 252-262 (514)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 78.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$35.43	59% 46810-33082 (79892)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$799.08	$803.09	+$4.01	50% 25606-25439 (51045)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.9¢	$516.82	$459.24	+$1.3
└ No leg	Noavg 79.9¢	$341.14	$343.86	+$2.72
RN1CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$470.35	$434.53	-$35.82	54% 57108-49373 (106481)
CA Cannae	Noavg 81.8¢	$392.91	$377.25	-$15.67	53% 16101-14270 (30371)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 80¢	$263.69	$253.8	-$4.94	49% 12981-13546 (26527)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.7¢	$42.68	$42.35	-$0.33	50% 11152-10960 (22112)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$27.68	$27.67	-$0.01	50% 33813-33380 (67193)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$9.34	$9.1	-$0.23	53% 5561-4981 (10542)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.9	$2.3	+$0.45	52% 7480-6775 (14255)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.3	$2.15	-$0.15	51% 1524-1473 (2997)

Kyn008

Invested

$1,787.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$11.46

Record

49%

252-262 (514)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,206.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$35.43

Record

59%

46810-33082 (79892)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$799.08

Value

$803.09

PnL

+$4.01

Record

50%

25606-25439 (51045)

Both legs:

Invested

$470.35

Value

$434.53

PnL

-$35.82

Record

54%

57108-49373 (106481)

Cannae

Invested

$392.91

Value

$377.25

PnL

-$15.67

Record

53%

16101-14270 (30371)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$263.69

Value

$253.8

PnL

-$4.94

Record

49%

12981-13546 (26527)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.68

Value

$42.35

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

11152-10960 (22112)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.68

Value

$27.67

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

33813-33380 (67193)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.34

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.23

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

7480-6775 (14255)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1524-1473 (2997)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.