Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$20.53
65.3¢ → 61.5¢
-6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 64.2¢ | $573.19 | $557.6 | -$15.59 | 50% 25606-25439 (51045) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $353.2 | $355.3 | +$16.64 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $218.25 | $184.72 | -$18.99 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $134.95 | $170.58 | +$35.63 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $350.28 | $345.3 | +$16.56 | 54% 57108-49373 (106481) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $265.59 | $224.32 | -$19.74 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $84.69 | $120.99 | +$36.3 | |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $49.87 | $49.48 | -$0.38 | 50% 11152-10960 (22112) |
KY Kyn008<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $53.48 | $37.7 | -$1.87 | 49% 252-262 (514) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $24.48 | $21.72 | -$1.21 | 50% 33813-33380 (67193) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $20.32 | $19.23 | -$1.08 | 53% 16101-14270 (30371) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $7.1 | -$0.4 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
Invested
$573.19
Value
$557.6
PnL
-$15.59
Record
50%
25606-25439 (51045)
Invested
$353.2
Value
$355.3
PnL
+$16.64
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$350.28
Value
$345.3
PnL
+$16.56
Record
54%
57108-49373 (106481)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.87
Value
$49.48
PnL
-$0.38
Record
50%
11152-10960 (22112)
Invested
$53.48
Value
$37.7
PnL
-$1.87
Record
49%
252-262 (514)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$21.72
PnL
-$1.21
Record
50%
33813-33380 (67193)
Invested
$20.32
Value
$19.23
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
16101-14270 (30371)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0.4
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.