FC Machida Zelvia vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$554.98
50.9¢ → 77¢
+51% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$505.68 | 59% 46810-33082 (79892) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $188.3 | $221.8 | +$43.63 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 27.3¢ | $99.45 | $108.32 | +$8.86 | 50% 11152-10960 (22112) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59.4¢ | $49.47 | $62.5 | +$13.03 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.3¢ | $49.99 | $45.82 | -$4.16 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 45.8¢ | $10.27 | $14.24 | +$3.97 | 48% 8890-9482 (18372) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $9.2 | $10.89 | +$1.69 | 53% 5561-4981 (10542) |
Invested
$1,140.27
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$505.68
Record
59%
46810-33082 (79892)
VeryLucky888Invested
$188.3
Value
$221.8
PnL
+$43.63
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
Invested
$99.45
Value
$108.32
PnL
+$8.86
Record
50%
11152-10960 (22112)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.27
Value
$14.24
PnL
+$3.97
Record
48%
8890-9482 (18372)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$10.89
PnL
+$1.69
Record
53%
5561-4981 (10542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.