Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-10-31?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 79¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$608.57

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 78.5¢

+35% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares11,636

Combined PnL+$668.85

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,107

Combined PnL-$60.28

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.7¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$130.86	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
LZ lzh1	Noavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20	43% 464-618 (1082)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$499.96	49% 236-246 (482)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Yesavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$50	38% 421-680 (1101)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 51.8¢	$920.04	$1.2K	+$242.51	54% 56524-48715 (105239)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.8¢	$560.04	$838.55	+$278.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$360	$324	-$36
VeryLucky888	Noavg 49.3¢	$447.61	$408.01	+$14.15	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 75.8¢	$144.03	$149.08	+$5.05	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 70¢	$102.12	$97.74	-$4.38	59% 30449-21168 (51617)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 50¢	$94.5	$96.39	+$1.89	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 49.8¢	$66.16	$67.9	+$1.74	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 45.9¢	$67.06	$46.78	-$20.28	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$23.92	$26.57	+$2.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.9¢	$43.14	$20.21	-$22.93
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$29.7	$28.46	-$1.24	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$26.94	$17.9	-$9.04	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 70¢	$5.35	$5	-$0.35	58% 18628-13694 (32322)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5	$2.58	-$0.08	48% 2366-2607 (4973)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,550.5

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$130.86

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

lzh1

Invested

$2,039.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

43%

464-618 (1082)

Kyn008

Invested

$1,360.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$499.96

Record

49%

236-246 (482)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,490

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$50

Record

38%

421-680 (1101)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$920.04

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$242.51

Record

54%

56524-48715 (105239)

Both legs:

No$560.0451.8¢+$278.51

Yes$36025¢-$36

VeryLucky888

Invested

$447.61

Value

$408.01

PnL

+$14.15

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

SnakeBall

Invested

$144.03

Value

$149.08

PnL

+$5.05

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$102.12

Value

$97.74

PnL

-$4.38

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$94.5

Value

$96.39

PnL

+$1.89

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$66.16

Value

$67.9

PnL

+$1.74

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.06

Value

$46.78

PnL

-$20.28

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

Both legs:

No$23.9270.7¢+$2.65

Yes$43.1445.9¢-$22.93

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.7

Value

$28.46

PnL

-$1.24

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.94

Value

$17.9

PnL

-$9.04

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$5.35

Value

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.