Vissel Kōbe vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.9K
$123.11
88.1¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 91.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$129.45 | 54% 56561-48730 (105291) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 76.3¢ | $215.79 | $258.65 | -$5.2 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 75¢ | $106.5 | $129.93 | -$0.71 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 75¢ | $5 | $4.54 | +$0.79 | 48% 2374-2612 (4986) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $1.21 | $0.37 | -$0.84 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.4 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
RN1Invested
$1,401.78
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$129.45
Record
54%
56561-48730 (105291)
VeryLucky888Invested
$215.79
Value
$258.65
PnL
-$5.2
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$106.5
Value
$129.93
PnL
-$0.71
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.79
Record
48%
2374-2612 (4986)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.21
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$0.84
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.