Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$114

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 93¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,119

Combined PnL-$139.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.67

Total Shares108

Combined PnL+$25.14

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 91¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$103.11	50% 33353-32915 (66268)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86.5¢	$180.47	$134.4	-$46.07	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$86.55	$50.2	+$29.43	49% 236-246 (482)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$38.3	$48.33	+$10.03	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.3¢	$7.65	$5.9	-$1.75	58% 18635-13702 (32337)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$3.1	$0.57	-$2.53	53% 4540-4093 (8633)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,680.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$103.11

Record

50%

33353-32915 (66268)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$180.47

Value

$134.4

PnL

-$46.07

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.55

Value

$50.2

PnL

+$29.43

Record

49%

236-246 (482)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$38.3

Value

$48.33

PnL

+$10.03

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.65

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.75

Record

58%

18635-13702 (32337)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$2.53

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.