Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 100%
$1.9K
$60.15
69.8¢ → 84.5¢
+21% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 67.6¢ | $922.49 | $1.0K | +$100.21 | 54% 56561-48730 (105291) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 75.4¢ | $619.86 | $629.2 | +$9.34 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 62¢ | $174.02 | $140.34 | -$33.68 | 49% 236-246 (482) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $53.76 | $42 | -$11.76 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $42.63 | $37.24 | -$5.39 | 49% 19143-19539 (38682) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $24.48 | $26.55 | +$2.07 | 50% 33353-32915 (66268) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 78¢ | $9.74 | $9.49 | -$0.25 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $3.88 | $3.5 | -$0.38 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
RN1Invested
$922.49
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$100.21
Record
54%
56561-48730 (105291)
Invested
$619.86
Value
$629.2
PnL
+$9.34
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
Invested
$174.02
Value
$140.34
PnL
-$33.68
Record
49%
236-246 (482)
Invested
$53.76
Value
$42
PnL
-$11.76
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
Invested
$42.63
Value
$37.24
PnL
-$5.39
Record
49%
19143-19539 (38682)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$26.55
PnL
+$2.07
Record
50%
33353-32915 (66268)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9.74
Value
$9.49
PnL
-$0.25
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.88
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.