Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 52¢ · $663 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$662.83
-$15.19
41¢ → 51.5¢
+25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Underavg 40¢ | $579.82 | $579.82 | +$0 | 49% 146-149 (295) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 50.6¢ | $67.33 | $53.2 | -$14.13 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $14.05 | $13.43 | -$0.62 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $12.82 | $11.93 | -$0.89 | 50% 33353-32915 (66268) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 59¢ | $258.89 | $4.46 | +$0.46 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
Invested
$579.82
Value
$579.82
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
Invested
$67.33
Value
$53.2
PnL
-$14.13
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.05
Value
$13.43
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
Invested
$12.82
Value
$11.93
PnL
-$0.89
Record
50%
33353-32915 (66268)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$258.89
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$0.46
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.