Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 22¢ · $654 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 78%
$653.84
$142.24
19.1¢ → 21.5¢
+12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 17.6¢ | $215.85 | $251.82 | +$35.97 | 50% 25065-24808 (49873) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 17¢ | $48.98 | $141.17 | +$92.19 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 25.5¢ | $122.61 | $100.91 | -$21.71 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $33.06 | $85.25 | +$52.2 | 58% 28668-21156 (49824) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $51.8 | $36.19 | -$15.61 | 55% 8295-6693 (14988) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 16.6¢ | $30.17 | $30.03 | -$0.14 | 54% 56561-48730 (105291) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $3.8 | $3.99 | +$0.19 | 49% 7885-8203 (16088) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $2.09 | $2.43 | +$0.35 | 59% 10125-7117 (17242) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $3.24 | $2.04 | -$1.2 | 53% 4540-4093 (8633) |
Invested
$215.85
Value
$251.82
PnL
+$35.97
Record
50%
25065-24808 (49873)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$48.98
Value
$141.17
PnL
+$92.19
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
Invested
$122.61
Value
$100.91
PnL
-$21.71
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
Invested
$33.06
Value
$85.25
PnL
+$52.2
Record
58%
28668-21156 (49824)
Invested
$51.8
Value
$36.19
PnL
-$15.61
Record
55%
8295-6693 (14988)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$30.17
Value
$30.03
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
56561-48730 (105291)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.99
PnL
+$0.19
Record
49%
7885-8203 (16088)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
10125-7117 (17242)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.24
Value
$2.04
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
4540-4093 (8633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.