Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 57¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$16.6K
-$123.22
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Noavg 56¢ | $9.9K | $8.7K | $-1.1K | 49% 146-149 (295) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $3.6K | $4.1K | +$524.54 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$390 | 47% 2498-2799 (5297) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $393.44 | $446.8 | +$64.3 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $224.88 | $258.1 | +$33.22 | 53% 15940-14117 (30057) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $50.6 | $58.08 | +$7.48 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $8.36 | $9.6 | +$1.24 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
Invested
$9,856.96
Value
$8.7K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
Invested
$3,554.93
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$524.54
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
Invested
$2,640
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$390
Record
47%
2498-2799 (5297)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$393.44
Value
$446.8
PnL
+$64.3
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$224.88
Value
$258.1
PnL
+$33.22
Record
53%
15940-14117 (30057)
Invested
$50.6
Value
$58.08
PnL
+$7.48
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.36
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$1.24
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.