Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 53¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
12
Under 92%
$46.7K
$252.92
53.3¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Overavg 46.7¢ | $21.9K | $22.3K | +$382.26 | 49% 146-149 (295) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53¢ | $10.7K | $10.6K | -$96.13 | 54% 56479-48663 (105142) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 54¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$41.51 | 50% 25028-24763 (49791) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 53.5¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | -$1.7 | 50% 19116-19502 (38618) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 53¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$22.93 | 59% 45621-31960 (77581) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 53¢ | $359.34 | $355.95 | -$3.39 | 52% 4302-3911 (8213) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53.2¢ | $600.09 | $321.01 | -$6 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
 poshposh | Underavg 52¢ | $304.2 | $312.98 | +$8.78 | 59% 10084-7066 (17150) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 55¢ | $279.18 | $271.57 | -$7.61 | 50% 33327-32891 (66218) |
SA Saber-greed | Underavg 55.6¢ | $208.99 | $201.1 | -$7.9 | 59% 2554-1781 (4335) |
TO topdogbigboi | Underavg 52.7¢ | $158 | $160.5 | +$2.5 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 53.4¢ | $139.99 | $140.68 | +$0.69 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
Invested
$21,915.61
Value
$22.3K
PnL
+$382.26
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
RN1Invested
$10,740.5
Value
$10.6K
PnL
-$96.13
Record
54%
56479-48663 (105142)
Invested
$5,517.76
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$41.51
Record
50%
25028-24763 (49791)
Invested
$4,173.87
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$1.7
Record
50%
19116-19502 (38618)
Invested
$2,302.23
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$22.93
Record
59%
45621-31960 (77581)
HRTradingInvested
$359.34
Value
$355.95
PnL
-$3.39
Record
52%
4302-3911 (8213)
VeryLucky888Invested
$600.09
Value
$321.01
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
poshposhInvested
$304.2
Value
$312.98
PnL
+$8.78
Record
59%
10084-7066 (17150)
Invested
$279.18
Value
$271.57
PnL
-$7.61
Record
50%
33327-32891 (66218)
Invested
$208.99
Value
$201.1
PnL
-$7.9
Record
59%
2554-1781 (4335)
Invested
$158
Value
$160.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
Invested
$139.99
Value
$140.68
PnL
+$0.69
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
1l2ihj34li12u34
CTROver — $22.3K
RN1
Under — $10.6K
GoalLineGhost
Under — $5.5K
omnibus-076daa
Under — $4.2K
UpTheBlues
Under — $2.3K
HRTrading
Under — $355.95
VeryLucky888
Under — $321.01
poshposh
Under — $312.98
SnakeBall
Under — $271.57
Saber-greed
Under — $201.1