Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $786 held · ends Oct 31

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$785.77

Combined PnL

-$13

Smart Money Entry

30.7¢ → 26.5¢

-14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$474.5

Total Shares1,593

Combined PnL-$22.21

No3 traders

Total Value$311.28

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$9.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$261.28	$224.89	-$36.39	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 70.7¢	$203.03	$210.95	+$7.92	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 30.2¢	$218.31	$210.88	+$12.97	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 73¢	$86.14	$86.73	+$0.59	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$37.51	$38.72	+$1.21	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 64¢	$12.8	$13.6	+$0.7	47% 2324-2589 (4913)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$261.28

Value

$224.89

PnL

-$36.39

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$203.03

Value

$210.95

PnL

+$7.92

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$218.31

Value

$210.88

PnL

+$12.97

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$86.14

Value

$86.73

PnL

+$0.59

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.51

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$1.21

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

$13.6

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.