Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-10-31?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 55¢ · $64K held · ends Oct 31

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$64.1K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 54.5¢

-6% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$32.9K

Total Shares72,354

Combined PnL+$2.7K

No13 traders

Total Value$31.2K

Total Shares54,409

Combined PnL-$506.92

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 41.8¢	$30.2K	$32.9K	+$2.7K	49% 146-149 (295)
RN1	Noavg 58.3¢	$8.8K	$9.0K	+$250	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 57.6¢	$8.6K	$8.1K	-$465.61	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 59.9¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$10	47% 2487-2794 (5281)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 57¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$136.23	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 58¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$168.79	50% 2506-2491 (4997)
CA Cannae	Noavg 59¢	$975.96	$992.24	+$16.28	53% 15932-14110 (30042)
poshposh	Noavg 57.1¢	$903.82	$949.09	+$45.27	59% 10084-7066 (17150)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 60¢	$732.1	$732	-$0.1	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 60¢	$536.76	$487.56	-$49.2	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 59¢	$354	$360	+$6	54% 4876-4103 (8979)
HRTrading	Noavg 58¢	$291.15	$273.6	-$17.55	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 60¢	$130.18	$130.2	+$0.02	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 57¢	$57.09	$60.1	+$3.01	49% 7817-8099 (15916)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$30,225.11

Value

$32.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

RN1

Invested

$8,750

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$250

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$8,601.72

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$465.61

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$4,490

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

2487-2794 (5281)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$3,065.27

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$136.23

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,804.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$168.79

Record

50%

2506-2491 (4997)

Cannae

Invested

$975.96

Value

$992.24

PnL

+$16.28

Record

53%

15932-14110 (30042)

poshposh

Invested

$903.82

Value

$949.09

PnL

+$45.27

Record

59%

10084-7066 (17150)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$732.1

Value

$732

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

SnakeBall

Invested

$536.76

Value

$487.56

PnL

-$49.2

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$354

Value

$360

PnL

+$6

Record

54%

4876-4103 (8979)

HRTrading

Invested

$291.15

Value

$273.6

PnL

-$17.55

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$130.18

Value

$130.2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$57.09

Value

$60.1

PnL

+$3.01

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.