Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 14¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 31

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 27%

Total Value

$25.4K

Combined PnL

-$117.02

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 14¢

-67% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares41,240

Combined PnL-$41.49

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares14,022

Combined PnL-$75.53

No — 27%Yes — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$17.6K	$17.5K	-$41.92	49% 146-149 (295)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Yesavg 57¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$25	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 57.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$35.95	50% 25053-24786 (49839)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$14.46	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 57.3¢	$696.31	$690	+$2.19	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 57.4¢	$268.72	$264.68	-$4.04	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
HRTrading	Yesavg 57¢	$127.53	$128.71	+$1.18	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$41.04	$40.32	-$0.72	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$5.9	$7.17	+$1.27	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$6.59	$6.92	+$0.33	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$2.45	$2.55	+$0.1	58% 18628-13694 (32322)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$17,557.5

Value

$17.5K

PnL

-$41.92

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Yes

Invested

$2,850

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,415

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$35.95

Record

50%

25053-24786 (49839)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,647.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$14.46

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$696.31

Value

$690

PnL

+$2.19

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$268.72

Value

$264.68

PnL

-$4.04

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$127.53

Value

$128.71

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.04

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$7.17

PnL

+$1.27

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.