Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 100¢ · $38K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.4K

Combined PnL

$-6.3K

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 99.5¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$32.5K

Total Shares44,059

Combined PnL$-6.5K

No4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares17,483

Combined PnL+$176.67

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QSQL	Yesavg 90.7¢	$23.6K	$18.0K	$-5.6K	— 7-3 (10)
FA fakeky	Yesavg 86.9¢	$9.2K	$7.3K	$-1.9K	78% 42-12 (54)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 69¢	$5.6K	$6.5K	+$929.03	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 31¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$0	49% 146-149 (295)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 68.9¢	$290.51	$400.28	+$109.76	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 11.5¢	$96.84	$208.03	+$111.19	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 69¢	$188.79	$188.79	-$0	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$177.67	$178.11	+$0.44	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69¢	$95.22	$95.22	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 30.8¢	$82.45	$82.89	+$0.44
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 13.4¢	$1.2K	$174.5	-$999.38	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 97.4¢	$100.65	$102.36	+$1.71
└ No leg	Noavg 13.4¢	$1.1K	$72.14	$-1.0K
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 13¢	$1.9K	$142.85	$-1.8K	54% 56524-48715 (105239)
└ No leg	Noavg 13¢	$1.9K	$79.81	$-1.8K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 99¢	$62.73	$63.04	+$0.31
poshposhCTR	Noavg 11.8¢	$40.09	$105.67	+$65.58	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$37.95	$37.95	-$0	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
AD adururu<$100	Yesavg 83.7¢	$44.91	$37.03	-$7.88	53% 386-339 (725)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Yesavg 83.4¢	$36.03	$29.81	-$6.22	53% 418-378 (796)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$13	$12.75	-$0.1	48% 2366-2607 (4973)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$5.56	$5.56	+$0	49% 19132-19523 (38655)

QSQL

Yes

Invested

$23,601.62

Value

$18.0K

PnL

$-5.6K

Record

—

7-3 (10)

fakeky

Yes

Invested

$9,183.44

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

78%

42-12 (54)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$5,604.03

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$929.03

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$5,118.68

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$290.51

Value

$400.28

PnL

+$109.76

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$96.84

Value

$208.03

PnL

+$111.19

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$188.79

Value

$188.79

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$177.67

Value

$178.11

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Both legs:

Yes$95.2269¢+$0

No$82.4530.8¢+$0.44

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$1,173.89

Value

$174.5

PnL

-$999.38

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

Both legs:

Yes$100.6597.4¢+$1.71

No$1,073.2413.4¢$-1.0K

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,943.18

Value

$142.85

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

54%

56524-48715 (105239)

Both legs:

No$1,880.4613¢$-1.8K

Yes$62.7399¢+$0.31

poshposhCTR

Invested

$40.09

Value

$105.67

PnL

+$65.58

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.95

Value

$37.95

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

adururu<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.91

Value

$37.03

PnL

-$7.88

Record

53%

386-339 (725)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.03

Value

$29.81

PnL

-$6.22

Record

53%

418-378 (796)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

19132-19523 (38655)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.