Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$76.23

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares13,690

Combined PnL+$76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.25

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$0.23

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 99.5¢	$11.1K	$11.1K	+$2.77	93% 850-61 (911)
RN1	Noavg 97.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$48.53	54% 56524-48715 (105239)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88.7¢	$216.65	$241.35	+$24.69	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
CA Cannae	Noavg 88¢	$116.71	$116.71	+$0	53% 15940-14117 (30057)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$1.38	$1.61	+$0.23	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.25	$1.25	+$0	48% 2366-2607 (4973)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.39	$0.39	+$0	53% 4456-4025 (8481)

Momo63

Invested

$11,096.22

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$2.77

Record

93%

850-61 (911)

RN1

Invested

$2,112.67

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$48.53

Record

54%

56524-48715 (105239)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$216.65

Value

$241.35

PnL

+$24.69

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

Cannae

Invested

$116.71

Value

$116.71

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15940-14117 (30057)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.