Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-10-31?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (10%) · No at 52¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 31

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 10%

Total Value

$16.5K

Combined PnL

$72.88

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares20,763

Combined PnL+$104.59

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,028

Combined PnL-$31.71

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 51¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	+$104.59	49% 146-149 (295)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$20.97	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$19.43	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Yesavg 48¢	$657.32	$671.02	+$13.69	47% 2487-2794 (5281)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$613.48	$607.22	-$6.26	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 48.9¢	$380.68	$381.64	+$0.96	53% 15932-14110 (30042)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$209.3	$202.18	+$0.3	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$45	$45.16	+$0.16	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$24.01	$23.77	-$0.25	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.45	+$0.08	47% 2324-2589 (4913)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$10,588.46

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$104.59

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,055

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$20.97

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,904.14

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$19.43

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Yes

Invested

$657.32

Value

$671.02

PnL

+$13.69

Record

47%

2487-2794 (5281)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$613.48

Value

$607.22

PnL

-$6.26

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$380.68

Value

$381.64

PnL

+$0.96

Record

53%

15932-14110 (30042)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$209.3

Value

$202.18

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$45.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.01

Value

$23.77

PnL

-$0.25

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2324-2589 (4913)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.