Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.8K
-$60
80.5¢ → 99.5¢
+23% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 75¢ | $600 | $540 | -$60 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 87¢ | $410.4 | $467 | +$56.6 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 75¢ | $483.95 | $435.52 | -$48.43 | 53% 15940-14117 (30057) |
 RN1 | Noavg 98¢ | $309.34 | $309.29 | -$0.05 | 54% 56524-48715 (105239) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $66.53 | $58.39 | -$8.14 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.36 | $0.39 | +$0.03 | 50% 33342-32905 (66247) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$600
Value
$540
PnL
-$60
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$410.4
Value
$467
PnL
+$56.6
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
Invested
$483.95
Value
$435.52
PnL
-$48.43
Record
53%
15940-14117 (30057)
RN1Invested
$309.34
Value
$309.29
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
56524-48715 (105239)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$66.53
Value
$58.39
PnL
-$8.14
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
33342-32905 (66247)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.