Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jacory Croskey-Merritt have 574.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 26¢ · $530 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$529.78
$221.72
54¢ → 26¢
-52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $251.55 | $327.86 | +$109.26 | 34% 662-1265 (1927) |
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 53.8¢ | $82.4 | $199.29 | +$116.89 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $7.05 | $2.62 | -$4.43 | 48% 7380-8081 (15461) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.