Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $102 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$102.47

Combined PnL

-$14.32

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.8

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$3.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.67

Total Shares1,921

Combined PnL-$17.93

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$96.19	$99.8	+$3.61	77% 8873-2639 (11512)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$7.72	$1.8	-$5.92	18% 526-2359 (2885)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.52	$0.45	-$4.07	73% 8252-3127 (11379)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$8.57	$0.42	-$7.94	57% 1105-823 (1928)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$96.19

Value

$99.8

PnL

+$3.61

Record

77%

8873-2639 (11512)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.72

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$5.92

Record

18%

526-2359 (2885)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$4.07

Record

73%

8252-3127 (11379)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.57

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$7.94

Record

57%

1105-823 (1928)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7916.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

8016.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.