Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$10.8K
$398.72
61.5¢ → 95.5¢
+55% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $16.1K | $10.4K | +$490.96 | 49% 146-149 (295) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $234 | $234 | +$0 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $124.51 | $126.36 | +$1.85 | 58% 28639-21134 (49773) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 39.4¢ | $113.96 | $17.37 | -$96.59 | 50% 33342-32905 (66247) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $4.77 | $5.92 | +$1.15 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $2.55 | $3.9 | +$1.35 | 58% 18628-13694 (32322) |
Invested
$16,127.75
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$490.96
Record
49%
146-149 (295)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$234
Value
$234
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$124.51
Value
$126.36
PnL
+$1.85
Record
58%
28639-21134 (49773)
Invested
$113.96
Value
$17.37
PnL
-$96.59
Record
50%
33342-32905 (66247)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.77
Value
$5.92
PnL
+$1.15
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$1.35
Record
58%
18628-13694 (32322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.