Spread: Tegevajaro Miyazaki (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ōita Trinita (40%) · Ōita Trinita at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Ōita Trinita
5
Ōita Trinita 40%
$1.7K
$1.14
75.7¢ → 74¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralŌita Trinita at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Ōita Trinitaavg 75.7¢ | $1.3K | $876.82 | -$420.7 | 59% 45710-32050 (77760) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Tegevajaro Miyazakiavg 23.9¢ | $400.55 | $820.52 | +$419.97 | 50% 25053-24786 (49839) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Tegevajaro Miyazakiavg 24¢ | $2.71 | $5.53 | +$2.82 | 58% 41809-30357 (72166) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Ōita Trinitaavg 77¢ | $4.18 | $3.2 | -$0.98 | 50% 33342-32905 (66247) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Tegevajaro Miyazakiavg 48¢ | $1.08 | $1.1 | +$0.02 | 53% 4456-4025 (8481) |
Invested
$1,297.52
Value
$876.82
PnL
-$420.7
Record
59%
45710-32050 (77760)
Invested
$400.55
Value
$820.52
PnL
+$419.97
Record
50%
25053-24786 (49839)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.71
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$2.82
Record
58%
41809-30357 (72166)
Invested
$4.18
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.98
Record
50%
33342-32905 (66247)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
4456-4025 (8481)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.