Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tochigi City FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 11¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$155.47

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 11¢

-70% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,245

Combined PnL+$39.72

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL+$115.75

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$42.24	49% 146-149 (295)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 63.1¢	$956.52	$1.1K	+$112.26	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 63¢	$378	$378	+$0	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 63¢	$63	$63	+$0	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 63¢	$13.86	$16.5	+$2.64	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.89	$9.84	-$0.05	59% 30449-21168 (51617)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$8.4	+$0.9	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$4.95	$2.4	-$2.55	58% 18628-13694 (32322)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.55	$0.59	+$0.03	50% 33342-32905 (66247)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,514.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$42.24

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$956.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$112.26

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$378

Value

$378

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63

Value

$63

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$2.64

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.