Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 2 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 46¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 31

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.8K

Combined PnL

-$880.29

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 46¢

-28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares31,410

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares24,634

Combined PnL+$128.85

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 64.2¢	$19.9K	$18.9K	-$983.14	49% 146-149 (295)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 35¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$55.92	59% 45621-31960 (77581)
RN1	Yesavg 36¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$46.82	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 36.9¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$96.11	50% 25028-24763 (49791)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$101.34
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$670.11	$675.34	+$5.23
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Yesavg 37¢	$740	$780	+$40	47% 2487-2794 (5281)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 64¢	$556	$258	-$26	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 35¢	$195.51	$181.55	-$13.96	50% 33327-32891 (66218)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 36.6¢	$115.16	$122.85	+$7.69	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$77.55	$84.01	+$6.46	50% 2506-2491 (4997)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$49.99	$54.16	+$4.17	59% 10084-7066 (17150)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$54.6	$36.5	-$18.1	63% 1760-1045 (2805)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$15.33	$14.67	-$0.66	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$6.17	$6.68	+$0.51	62% 1147-697 (1844)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$19,898.95

Value

$18.9K

PnL

-$983.14

Record

49%

146-149 (295)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$4,132.58

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$55.92

Record

59%

45621-31960 (77581)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,401.35

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$46.82

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,775.81

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$96.11

Record

50%

25028-24763 (49791)

Both legs:

Yes$1,105.736.9¢-$101.34

No$670.1166¢+$5.23

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Yes

Invested

$740

Value

$780

PnL

+$40

Record

47%

2487-2794 (5281)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$556

Value

$258

PnL

-$26

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$195.51

Value

$181.55

PnL

-$13.96

Record

50%

33327-32891 (66218)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$115.16

Value

$122.85

PnL

+$7.69

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.55

Value

$84.01

PnL

+$6.46

Record

50%

2506-2491 (4997)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.99

Value

$54.16

PnL

+$4.17

Record

59%

10084-7066 (17150)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.6

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$18.1

Record

63%

1760-1045 (2805)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.33

Value

$14.67

PnL

-$0.66

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.17

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$0.51

Record

62%

1147-697 (1844)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 12 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.