Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $603 held · ended Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$603.16

Combined PnL

-$38.01

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 67.5¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$584.61

Total Shares1,142

Combined PnL-$39.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.55

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$1.2

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54.5¢	$530	$432	-$8	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 55¢	$81.95	$80.46	-$1.49	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$78.39	$47.66	-$30.73	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 55.2¢	$12.03	$12.11	+$0.08	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 62¢	$10.15	$9.94	-$0.21	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$6.88	$7.45	+$0.57	50% 33342-32905 (66247)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$6.45	$7.1	+$0.65	58% 18628-13694 (32322)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$5.32	$6.44	+$1.12	63% 1760-1045 (2805)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$530

Value

$432

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$81.95

Value

$80.46

PnL

-$1.49

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$78.39

Value

$47.66

PnL

-$30.73

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.03

Value

$12.11

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$10.15

Value

$9.94

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$7.45

PnL

+$0.57

Record

50%

33342-32905 (66247)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.32

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$1.12

Record

63%

1760-1045 (2805)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.