Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 76¢ · $110 held · ended Oct 31

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$110.05

Combined PnL

-$31.61

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$75.42

Total Shares138

Combined PnL-$24.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$34.62

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$6.63

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 73¢	$82.47	$58.18	-$24.29	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$22.75	$17.65	-$5.1	59% 45710-32050 (77760)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$16.2	$14.55	-$1.65	54% 56524-48715 (105239)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 67¢	$14.48	$12.24	-$2.24	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 54¢	$3.45	$5	+$1.55	58% 18628-13694 (32322)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.43	+$0.13	49% 7853-8150 (16003)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$82.47

Value

$58.18

PnL

-$24.29

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.75

Value

$17.65

PnL

-$5.1

Record

59%

45710-32050 (77760)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$1.65

Record

54%

56524-48715 (105239)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$14.48

Value

$12.24

PnL

-$2.24

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

PnL

+$1.55

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.