Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (93%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
L.R. Vicenza vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 2.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 7.0¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
$1.2K
-$46.9
46.9¢ → 7¢
-85% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 46.8¢ | $823.21 | $791 | -$32.21 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 46.9¢ | $307.2 | $298.2 | -$9 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46.9¢ | $59.5 | $57.79 | -$1.71 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $43.28 | $44.88 | +$1.6 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $25 | $25.24 | +$0.24 | 50% 10445-10310 (20755) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $10.23 | $9.89 | -$0.34 | 55% 8036-6505 (14541) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $8.28 | $8.19 | -$0.09 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $6.45 | $1.05 | -$5.4 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
Invested
$823.21
Value
$791
PnL
-$32.21
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$307.2
Value
$298.2
PnL
-$9
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$59.5
Value
$57.79
PnL
-$1.71
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$43.28
Value
$44.88
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
Invested
$25
Value
$25.24
PnL
+$0.24
Record
50%
10445-10310 (20755)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$0.34
Record
55%
8036-6505 (14541)
Invested
$8.28
Value
$8.19
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.45
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$5.4
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.