Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 44%
$2.1K
$494.66
64.7¢ → 98.8¢
+53% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58.5¢ | $473.59 | $796.61 | +$323.02 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $663.78 | $740.37 | +$76.59 | 49% 258-268 (526) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 76.1¢ | $355.22 | $458.62 | +$103.4 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $50.74 | $78.26 | -$2.15 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $30.1 | $23.41 | -$6.69 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.4¢ | $6 | $6.43 | +$0.43 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.1 | -$0.05 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.1¢ | $1.42 | $1.73 | +$0.31 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $0.7 | -$0.2 | 58% 18784-13847 (32631) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$473.59
Value
$796.61
PnL
+$323.02
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$663.78
Value
$740.37
PnL
+$76.59
Record
49%
258-268 (526)
Invested
$355.22
Value
$458.62
PnL
+$103.4
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$50.74
Value
$78.26
PnL
-$2.15
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$30.1
Value
$23.41
PnL
-$6.69
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.43
PnL
+$0.43
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.31
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
18784-13847 (32631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.