Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$16.05
38.3¢ → 41.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $674.59 | $661.53 | -$13.06 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.9¢ | $420.31 | $403.71 | -$16.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $254.28 | $257.82 | +$3.54 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $253.53 | $230.16 | -$23.37 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 60¢ | $205.08 | $223.88 | +$18.8 | 50% 219-221 (440) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $117 | $91.99 | +$20.37 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $2.73 | $2.98 | +$0.25 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
Invested
$674.59
Value
$661.53
PnL
-$13.06
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Both legs:
Invested
$253.53
Value
$230.16
PnL
-$23.37
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$205.08
Value
$223.88
PnL
+$18.8
Record
50%
219-221 (440)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$117
Value
$91.99
PnL
+$20.37
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.