SS Juve Stabia vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 100%
$1.0K
-$38.39
50.8¢ → 91.5¢
+80% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 51.1¢ | $548.59 | $525.84 | -$22.75 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 51.5¢ | $319.48 | $304.16 | -$15.32 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 45¢ | $91.86 | $100.03 | +$8.17 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $66 | $58.8 | -$7.2 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $25.95 | $25.43 | -$0.52 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $7.24 | $7.32 | +$0.08 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $3.59 | $2.75 | -$0.84 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
Invested
$548.59
Value
$525.84
PnL
-$22.75
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$319.48
Value
$304.16
PnL
-$15.32
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888Invested
$91.86
Value
$100.03
PnL
+$8.17
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$66
Value
$58.8
PnL
-$7.2
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$25.95
Value
$25.43
PnL
-$0.52
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.24
Value
$7.32
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.84
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.