Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 25¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
$35.71
30¢ → 24.5¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $435.9 | $450.43 | +$14.53 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $347 | $358.57 | +$11.57 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $284.37 | $293.85 | +$9.48 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $267.69 | $240.98 | -$26.71 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.3¢ | $195.24 | $165.1 | -$30.15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.2¢ | $72.45 | $75.89 | +$3.44 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $75.19 | $76.03 | +$0.84 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $25.19 | $26.03 | +$0.84 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $2.08 | $2.21 | +$0.14 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
RN1CTRInvested
$435.9
Value
$450.43
PnL
+$14.53
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$347
Value
$358.57
PnL
+$11.57
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$284.37
Value
$293.85
PnL
+$9.48
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$267.69
Value
$240.98
PnL
-$26.71
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Both legs:
Invested
$75.19
Value
$76.03
PnL
+$0.84
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.