Will UC Sampdoria vs. Virtus Entella end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $574 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$574.43
-$57.12
71.5¢ → 94.5¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 75¢ | $263.63 | $323.39 | +$59.76 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 67¢ | $101.19 | $102.7 | +$0.76 | 47% 2521-2820 (5341) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $95.63 | $95.63 | -$0.7 | 51% 1685-1650 (3335) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $94.43 | $30.22 | -$64.21 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $68.52 | $15.7 | -$52.82 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.7 | $6.8 | +$0.1 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
Invested
$263.63
Value
$323.39
PnL
+$59.76
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$101.19
Value
$102.7
PnL
+$0.76
Record
47%
2521-2820 (5341)
us391<$100Invested
$95.63
Value
$95.63
PnL
-$0.7
Record
51%
1685-1650 (3335)
Invested
$94.43
Value
$30.22
PnL
-$64.21
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
Invested
$68.52
Value
$15.7
PnL
-$52.82
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0.1
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.